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Baccarat Probabilities

Get the Basics

While Baccarat is essentially a game of chance, because it is a numbers game you can calculate the odds, at least in a general way. When a player is learning how to play baccarat the first thing he must learn is to maintain control of the game and their bankroll and the odds will much easier to predict. All casino games have one aspect; at least that affects the probabilities, and always in favor of the house. If you understand these aspects and how they affect the game you will be much further ahead. The house always has the advantage. The trick is to play in such a way as to lower that advantage to an acceptable risk.

It is Simple Arithmetic

The simplest way to determine Baccarat probabilities is to understand that, during play, the best chance to win at least 45.8 percent of the time betting on the bank is when the player´s bet has a 44.6%. The remainder of the wins will go to the tie, a whopping 9.6%. If the banker bet has the highest chances of winning and the tie has the lowest the math is simple. The higher the chance of a certain bet position winning, the lower the odds for the house. This breaks down to a spread between the three bets of between 1% and 5%. Casinos know this. That is why they charge a 5% commission on all bankers bets. This is the houses method of increasing its edge. Despite this commission though, the banker bet still has the better odds of making players money than any other bet.

No Cut and Dried Answer

The only successful way to make money at Baccarat is to stick with the basics percentages outlined above. Some gamblers will tell you that card counting, used commonly in Blackjack will work but this is not true. As a card counter myself I can assure you this is not true. If you want to count, feel free. It is true that turning up a lot of high cards sometimes favors the dealer, and low cards favors the player. This is not always true, as it is in Blackjack though, so it pays to be careful trying to use this technique. There is no simple answer to this problem. The secret is to manage your money and bet with the odds favoring you. Start with fewer bets, until you get the flow of the game. Don't pay attention to other player's bets. You aren't playing them, you are playing the house. Stick with the odds and manage your bankroll effectively for more consistent online Baccarat playing.